Some days ago Juan presented a challenge of blind rectification. This is a kind of test that I 'm waiting for 17 years when I compiled Polaris. However, this is of course not a real challenge as this was a famous person (Jean Sibelius), everyone can find out the identity of the person. Perhaps Juan or anyone else can present us the real challenge: a totally anonymous person. The main conditions are:
1. A clear copy of the birth certificate WITH BIRTH TIME is in hand (preferably birth in hospital and not in home)
2. At least 30-35 events, 90% of them should be with accurate dates
In the past I asked Geoffrey Dean and his successor Rudolf Smit for such a test but I didn't get any answer.
3 years ago one guy, George W. wrote about my program "Polaris Software- a Critical Analysis):
http://outofthegdwaye.wordpress.com/201 ... -analysis/
He is not astrologer, didn't have Polaris and of course didn't test it, yet he dared to write about it? James and I asked him if he can supply us data for the real challenge. This was 3 years ago, we are still waiting?

Hello Juan,

Okay...

Re: "The exact coordinates are 60N59'47" and 24E27'45".

So, what you are saying is....that my using my normal method of looking on Google Earth to shore up given coordinates makes no sense, while at the same time, my having done so, gave me a longitude of 24? 27' E, where you had given me 24? 24' E.

My method, error = 0? 0' 45"

Given by you, error = 0? 3' 45"

It appears the end certainly justifies the means...


James

Atlantean wrote:Hello Juan,

Okay...

Re: "The exact coordinates are 60N59'47" and 24E27'45".

So, what you are saying is....that my using my normal method of looking on Google Earth to shore up given coordinates makes no sense, while at the same time, my having done so, gave me a longitude of 24? 27' E, where you had given me 24? 24' E.

My method, error = 0? 0' 45"

Given by you, error = 0? 3' 45"

It appears the end certainly justifies the means...


James

Right, but if he is actually born at another location to what you used, this just means that the margin of error you used is different from what the reality is. It is not a case of simply moving a person's birth place until we get a tighter margin of error obviously. If we have a known place of birth, it is probably better that we stick to it, and let everything else flow from those unknowns.

Isaac Starkman wrote:Some days ago Juan presented a challenge of blind rectification. This is a kind of test that I 'm waiting for 17 years when I compiled Polaris. However, this is of course not a real challenge as this was a famous person (Jean Sibelius), everyone can find out the identity of the person. Perhaps Juan or anyone else can present us the real challenge: a totally anonymous person.

Hi Isaac

I wish I could help with this, however realistically I do not think I know someone with enough events to fulfil the criteria.
I just wanted to say as well that not only are examining the claim James made regarding the efficacy of topocentric houses with primary directions etc. for rectification, but, at least for me, the idea that the placidus cusps are very close to the topocentric ones in a lot of cases, and the quesiton of whether using placidus cusps with directions makes a similarly accurate rectification. Unfortunately I do not have the time, nor confidence in the necessary skills to use house cusps like this with primary directions. So I'm forced to be just an interested observer.

Hello Ariondys,

Re: "William Shatner's Weird or What... the question posed to an actual statistician. The case is 40 people. the odds that 1 of them will share birthdays with one of the others."

Yes, but our particular example here is not nearly as complicated (mathematically) as that example that you are giving...

There ARE 1440 minutes in a day. If we assume that a person can only be born in one discrete moment, ie. he has an EXACT birth time that (if known) could be expressed in Hours, Minutes, and Seconds...then there is one CLOSEST MINUTE to that actual time. When Polaris, out of 1440 minutes finds that same minute, it has defeated 1/1440 odds. Period. [I went to college on a mathematical scholarship and I loved Probability and Statistics, so technically, yes, I won't mind arguing about it.]

As this example falls under the category of "mutually exclusive", the combined probability is arrived at by multiplying the individual probabilities. Since we are talking about REPEATING the 1/1440 odds, the formula simply becomes...
As one can see, the divisor is rising exponentially... ie. the odds quickly become infinitesimal.

To MIRROR the odds of Polaris just TWICE (in two attempts) coming to the right minute, you would have to flip a coin and correctly call heads or tails almost 21 times in a row!

Take care

James

Hello Paul,

Re: "...Right, but if he is actually born at another location..."

When I looked, it appeared right next to an actual hamlet, though located in a grove of trees. Had he actually been a woodchuck, then this location might very well have been the correct one, but I was skeptical and so used that closest town believing it (from experience!) to be more likely correct. Turns out, it was. (and significantly so)

Re: Topocentric vs. Placidus

Well, we have Neil Armstrong, who has a very tightly-defined, witnessed birth time that happens to be correct. One could play around in those few seconds around the observed time to get the best Placidus "fit", but still, I will guarantee you that the orbs will an order of magnitude higher than the Topocentric ones.

Take care...and as always, thanks!

James

Hello

There appeared to be some contention over aspects relative to events...

Since we have the case of Neil Armstrong, whose Mother witnessed his birth and recorded it (correctly) with great precision, his makes an ideal test case for aspects to events.

I would love if anyone would (after perusing and thinking about the following list) comment on any events/aspects that don't seem to make sense...

Birth of Brother

Mercury trine Node (0? 1' orb)
Venus sextile 3rd (0? 4' orb)

Success - Pilot's license

Jupiter trine MC (0? 3' orb)

Graduation

9th square Uranus (0? 6' orb)

Mobilization (military)

Mars square MC (0? 5' orb)
Asc opposite Saturn (0? 10' orb)

Demobilization (freedom from military)

Jupiter conjunct Asc (0? 3' orb)

Marriage

Mars conjunct Jupiter (0? 9' orb)

Birth of Son

Pluto square 5th (0? 1' orb)
Venus opposite Node (0? 2' orb)

Birth of Daughter

IC conjunct Venus (0? 5' orb)

Moon Landing

Mercury opposite Uranus (0? 0' orb)
9th conjunct Moon (0? 6' orb)

Accident

3rd square Mars (0? 4' orb)

Death of Father

Mars inconjunct Saturn (0? 5' orb)
MC conjunct Node (0? 7' orb)

Death of Mother

8th semisquare Uranus (0? 5' orb)

Thanks!

James

Isaac Starkman wrote: At least 30-35 events, 90% of them should be with accurate dates

This looks very straightforward and simple but the reality --at least from my perspective since I am not an event-oriented astrologer-- is that it is generally difficult finding or compiling such a list. On my part the Sibelius list was all I had and that's why I used it.

It is probably fair to say that part of the difficulty is that other than lawyers during a criminal trial or maybe the CIA, only astrologers, and only some among them, have an interest in very precise dates.

In the blog link you mentioned there is a list of event categories apparently from James that is helpful. Possibly I could fill it partlially with data from my own life, but I don't think there will be more than 15 events, and my chart has been in my website for years, so I would never consider it a blind test.

Juan

Hello Juan,

Re: "...it is generally difficult finding or compiling such a list. On my part the Sibelius list was all I had and that's why I used it."

I used about a dozen or so dated events in order to try and find Sibelius' birth time. You mentioned that that was all of the events that you had. I have since been in contact with Isaac (author of Polaris) and he has also done Sibelius' rectification. The difference is...where I had about a dozen events, Isaac was able to find FOUR DOZEN events! I will post more about this in another thread, when I have time...

Re: "It is probably fair to say that part of the difficulty is that other than lawyers during a criminal trial or maybe the CIA, only astrologers, and only some among them, have an interest in very precise dates."

It really depends on the person. I have had clients that have sent me immaculately organized (in Excel no less) listing of between 30 and 50 dated events. It's not common that people would have that many recorded events, but it does actually happen. When I first am contacted about a (future) rectification, I mention the event list and they OFTEN say that they think they will only have about 10 or 12 events. After they peruse the categories of events that can help in rectification, they usually come up with at least 18 to 20. [As I mentioned before...each and every event tends to make it just a little more conclusive...a little easier to arrive at a confident conclusion to the rectification.]

Have fun!

James

Juan wrote:

Isaac Starkman wrote: At least 30-35 events, 90% of them should be with accurate dates

This looks very straightforward and simple but the reality --at least from my perspective since I am not an event-oriented astrologer-- is that it is generally difficult finding or compiling such a list. On my part the Sibelius list was all I had and that's why I used it.

It is probably fair to say that part of the difficulty is that other than lawyers during a criminal trial or maybe the CIA, only astrologers, and only some among them, have an interest in very precise dates.

In the blog link you mentioned there is a list of event categories apparently from James that is helpful. Possibly I could fill it partlially with data from my own life, but I don't think there will be more than 15 events, and my chart has been in my website for years, so I would never consider it a blind test.

Juan

Juan: This is indeed the main problem. When I'm asking list of events, most peoples have difficulties to do it, they have to search for documents etc, in several cases some peoples even didn't remember the birth dates for their children? a diary? don't ask them about that? but on the other hand, as James mentioned, I met peoples that can give me immediately a long list of events with exact dates (most of them have Sun or Asc in Cancer).
Ok, this is not a blind test, but if you agree, posts here the events for your life and I will rectify the chart. As your birth time 1.10 pm seems to be quite close to the true birth time, this will not be a difficult case. The cusps, as for all the peoples who born near the equator, are identical for both the Topo and Placidus house systems, but we can compare it with different systems of primary directions.
Paul: in some cases for peoples born in high latitude 50N+, the difference can be more than 2 degrees!

Isaac Starkman wrote:Ok, this is not a blind test, but if you agree, posts here the events for your life and I will rectify the chart.

I sincerely appreciate the offer, and think it would be foolish not to accept it. But out of my head I could only provide 6 dates from the category list mentioned (when I set out to do it a while ago), and if I dedicate myself to look into the few old papers I keep there may be 3 or 4 more, which doesn't sound very promising. And at this point of my life I feel a lot of resistance to looking into the past.

I feel more interest for example in the chart of Sibelius than in mine, and plan on writing more about it here in the light of primaries. The list I gave was compiled back in 1980 when I read all the books on Sibelius I could find at the UC Library in Sta Barbara. At that time there was no Internet as today so I imagine it is possible to expand that list, as James suggested you have done.

What I am aiming at is focusing on a short list of critical events that can be considered life-defining or life-shaping, the type of events that divide a biography into "before" and "after". There aren't many events of this type in a lifetime (moments that I call "epiphanical" in my essay on "The Seed Metaphor"). I want to explore the possibility that these "cutting" or "major" events are reflected through equally cutting or major "chart-events" such as the passage through the angles of the chart, or more specifically the crossing of the horizon or meridian.

This crossing of the angles through primary directions is what I want to explore, including the "zodiacal" and "naibod" version used in the Topocentric system, but stripped of everything else. Even though I am no expert on primary directions, I have always felt that this angle-crossing in primaries is the best represention there is in Astrology of the organic self-contained nature and "major markers" of a human biography.

It is a vertical bare-bones approach, a "Sibelius Fourth Symphony" view of the chart. If not all events are equally critical in a personal biography, then not all parts of the chart are equally critical. If an event divides or cuts a personal biography in two, so the astrological event must be such that it cuts the chart in two.

As an illustration, I see 2 "portals" (or anchors) to Sibelius chart and biography (there may be others) that "round things up", and which I expect to see represented with special weight in the time-dynamics of the chart.

One is Uranus. Sibelius died September 20, 1957, when he was 79 days short of being 92. And his father died when he was 2.6 years old. This, I have always felt, is related to the position of Uranus as the most elevated planet in the chart, in 2 Cancer (2 degrees = 2 years), or 92 of ecliptic longitude (and right ascension as well) which equates to 92 years. The first drastic turn of events in his life and the last one, pointing to Uranus.

Another anchor or vortex -portal is the death of her little daughter Kirsty when Sibelius was about to be 32. Kirsty was born when Sibelius was writing a "kindertotenlied" called ""Syd?meni Laulu", which was performed just weeks after she had been born. Now, one big peculiarity of Sibelius life is what biographers call "the silence of Jarvenpaa" (Jarvenpaa was the location of his home "Villa Ainola"): he simply stopped creating after 1929, and never published a significant work again until he died in 1957. This "death" of his creativity after he was 63 puts the death of his daughter at the exact midpoint in time from birth, it is a time-vortex that is manifesting itself as a creative death.

... so I expect to see this kind of event (of which there are but a few in a lifetime) represented through primary directions as "axial", i.e, of strong and central astrological importance, cutting the chart in the same way that it is cutting a person's life.

Juan

Ariondys wrote:I took my friend's horoscope, which is verbally stated to me as to the minute. And I'm kind of lazy to gather events, my memory of what they have done besides move house ( progressed moon conjuncted AS -- makes it seem plausible) is desperately feeble.

I do know specific dates for some, shall I call them classic topocentric events, deaths and births and such: 2 daughters.

In both cases, it was 5th house and Venus sextiles. with barely a 1/2 minute adjustment to rectify. AND IC/5th for then 2nd daughter.

Rectifying while needing to use the User feature in Morinus is consuming, so I'm am not going to make a "best fit", trying to get a low average difference is creating a higher total differences with Placidus semi-arc.

Naturally a different rectification is needed for a system change. And a more northerly latitude is needed for increased contrast*- the 5th cusp differential between house systems is 0?15'
*essentially the contrast should be increased until 1 house method is judged as breaking. And with multiple horoscopes(ouch, too much effort)


As intimated, here is the Venus - 5th house daughters:

**exceeds recommended orbs
Topo with Astro (-15 seconds)(-25 seconds)(-35 seconds**)
1st daughter
VE/11 60(d) --- +16days ---- +29days ---- +39days
11/SU -90(c) -- -30days ---- -16days ----- -1day
2nd daughter
JU/11 -120(c) - +29days ---- +15days ---- -1day
11/VE -60(c) --- -22days ---- -10days ---- +5days
MC/11 0(d) ---- -53days ---- -55days ---- -57days
PL/MC 45(c) ---- +27days ---- +15days ---- +1day

Total ---------- -33days ---- -22days ---- -14days
Absolute Total - 177days ---- 140days ---- 104days


Plac. semi-arc (+0 seconds)(+10 seconds)(+40 seconds)
1st daughter
User D-> VE --- +54days --- +46days --- +23days
sq.SU C-> 5th -- -5days --- -20days --- -67days
2nd daughter
User C-> JU --- -26days --- -12days --- +27days
tr.VE C-> 5th -- -9days --- -25days --- -71days
User D-> IC --- +39days --- +41days --- +45days
User C-> PL --- +27days --- +38days --- +70days

Average Total -- +90 ----- +68 ------ +27
Absolute Total - 160 ------ 182 ------- 303

(there no way to get a uniform font?)

Every event I add now is a check. Which I can't do now but soon. It will either prove invalid everything I've just done. I know this person had a surgery, and hopefully a record of that date exists and is obtainable.

Hello Juan,

Re: What I am aiming at is focusing on a short list of critical events that can be considered life-defining or life-shaping, the type of events that divide a biography into "before" and "after".

This is basically the normal approach that most astrologers take when trying to rectify a chart. ie. let's look through the events we have, choose the biggest ones, and then try to make the astrology fit those.

In Polaris, this HANDICAPS the program. Polaris tends to function best when there are more total events. [This is NOT to say that Polaris would work better with 40 insignificant events than with 15 really big ones, not at all... merely that the "let's pick and choose events" is a subjective failing in many rectifications and works against Polaris' finding that magical moment when applied here.]

James