145 by ModWasp Another poor result for the Eclipse method with only Together Forever returning 1.48 for the place. Some friendly advice - an 'each way' bet is essentially 2 bets - the first part is to win and the other is for a place. Depending on the race, you'll get either 1/4 or 1/5 of the odds for the place part of the bet. If the horse places, you lose the 1st part of the bet and are left with the place part - at either 1/4 or 1/5 of the odds. It's not worth placing an each way bet unless the odds are 4/1 or higher - then at least you get your money back if the horse places, because you'll get at least evens on the place part (at 4/1 @1/4, 5/1 @1/5). A 'WO' (without favourite) bet is worth considering - you'll lose a couple of points on the odds you take - but it's a good bet for a return if you think that your horse will get a place but think that the favourite is likely to win. That means that if the fav wins, then your WO bet will be a winner if it finishes 2nd to the fav. You can also place an e/w Wo bet. If the fav wins, you basically get an extra place - it's a good bet for backing long shots. E/w at 1/4 of the odds at 9/4 is a losing bet, it doesn't even return the place part of the original stake - if you had placed a WO bet on together forever, you would have had a winner at odds of maybe 8/13, because Star of Seville was the clear favourite - and you get a return on your bet, albeit a relatively smaller one, instead of making a loss on a placed bet. Verum e Quote Thu May 14, 2015 6:46 am
146 by skyrack An each way bet placing at 9/4 would I think return 1.56 for 2 staked. A place bet on Betfair for Together Forever SP 9/4 returned 2.96 for 2 staked. Quote Thu May 14, 2015 7:52 am
147 by ModWasp An each way bet placing at 9/4 would I think return 1.56 for 2 staked. A place bet on Betfair for Together Forever SP 9/4 returned 2.96 for 2 staked. If the return is 1.56 for a 2.00 stake, you've lost .44. The SP was 9/4 across the board for it to win, so Bet fair must have had a promotion on that race, which surprises me, because bookies were only paying on 2 places anyway. You place an each way bet for the horse to either win or to place. Together Forever finished 2nd @9/4 - the placed odds for the race would have been divided by 1/4 of the SP. The return of 1.56 is correct, assuming you had ?1 e/w, because 9/4 is slightly longer than 2/1. Had the horse won, your bet would have returned 2.96 - because remember, an e/w bet is two bets - half of which is at 1/4 of the odds! Verum e Quote Thu May 14, 2015 8:24 am
148 by skyrack Yes, it goes without saying that getting 1.56 for 2 is a loss. I am aware of the number of paying places according to the number of horses that come under starter's orders. Betfair is a betting exchange and prices available to bet match what other punters want to lay. Betfair also offer SP betting using their own SP rather than the official returned SP. Yesterday's York 15:45 Together Forever had an official SP of 9/4 or 3.25 in decimal odds. Betfair's SP was 3.28 and a place of 1.48. Typically Betfair's place prices are about the same as the place portion of a eachway bet. Sometimes more, sometimes less. But the benefit of a Betfair place bet is that you don't have to commit to the win portion of an eachway bet. Quote Thu May 14, 2015 9:41 am
149 by skyrack astrogooner wrote:Had the horse won, your bet would have returned 2.96 - because remember, an e/w bet is two bets - half of which is at 1/4 of the odds! I thought you said you used to be a bookie...? If so I hope you didn't work as a settler. If the horse had won the return would have been 4.81 which, of course, includes the 1 win stake and the 1 place stake of an eachway bet. So a profit of 2.81 and not 2.96. Quote Thu May 14, 2015 10:04 am
150 by ModWasp Betfair is a betting exchange and prices available to bet match what other punters want to lay. Betfair also offer SP betting using their own SP rather than the official returned SP. Yes, i understand that as i work for one of their rivals. I was just offering some friendly advice on how maximise your gains and minimise your losses in terms of gambling. Betfair's SP was 3.28 and a place of 1.48. Punting 2.00 on a place with a return of just 1.48 seems a little alien to me, i could understand it if the odds were longer - but at 9/4 you stand to lose more than you stand to gain. If you place a place bet on a 5 horse field, and if you are being honest with yourself, it probably means you don't fancy your selection to win. In which case, it's probably time to back what you think will win. If you are just placing a 'place' bet with only two places in the race, the best bet is probably a forecast or a reverse forecast - ?1 paying ?2.15 from yesterday's race. After all, gambling is about the value of your return against your stake. Verum e Quote Thu May 14, 2015 10:16 am
151 by ModWasp You are absolutely correct on that - i was doing it in my head at 1/5 of the odds which would return 1,96 on a place with 1/5 of the odds. An error on my part. Please accept he very most humble of apologies - errors happen to us mere mortals from time to time. But there's no need to get bitchy about it, is there? If the horse had won Yes, but it didn't. Therefore that was a losing bet - you staked more than you gained. Had the horse won, you would have staked more for the win than the return would have suggested - i.e. you've had two bets on it - the place part only returning at 1/4 the odds. On anything longer than 4 or 5 to 1, i can understand having an each way bet. But at 9/4? Not for me se?or...i have more confidence in my selections on the nose at that price. Last edited by ModWasp on Thu May 14, 2015 10:48 am, edited 1 time in total. Verum e Quote Thu May 14, 2015 10:25 am
152 by skyrack Streuth! It was you who started to teach me about eachway betting. I wouldn't touch that with a barge pole except for the likes of the Grand National. I thought I had made it clear that the bets were in the Betfair place market. A return of 1.48 for a 1 stake is a good profit in my book. Quote Thu May 14, 2015 10:47 am
153 by ModWasp Hilarious. Calm down. It was just some friendly advice. Anyway, what were your place bets and what's the astrological reasoning behind them? Verum e Quote Thu May 14, 2015 10:56 am
154 by skyrack These are my place bets for today: Salisbury 14:20 La Boheme Salisbury 13:50 Ground Control Newmarket 17:15 Freddie Freeloader All are Maiden races so you can feel happy to compete with your own selections. My astrological reasoning is that of Sepharial's Eclipse method. Quote Thu May 14, 2015 11:12 am
155 by ModWasp Yes, Ground Control is also my fancy from Salisbury. 5th semi sextile angular Saturn. Have you gone each way on it? Verum e Quote Thu May 14, 2015 11:17 am
156 by GB A clear win for the Addey method in the 15.15 at York today. Campanus 5th trine Sun in Taurus - winner Golden Horn Quote Thu May 14, 2015 2:41 pm